2024 Election: The Role of Crypto

Harris Poll conducted a survey on behalf of Grayscale on voters in the 2024 US Election. The latest longitudinal survey data from Phase 3 (captured between between September 4th and 6th, 2024) reinforced the findings from the second phase and underscored that American voters continue to have many of the same priorities and attitudes since Phase 2 was fielded in May 2024. However, there have been some noteworthy shifts in interest and perception around owning crypto and how voters are thinking of crypto in the political landscape — both increasingly important topics leading up to the 2024 US Election.

Methodology

The survey was conducted online by The Harris Poll on behalf of Grayscale via its Harris On Demand omnibus product within the United States between September 4th and 6th, 2024 among 1,841 adults (aged 18 and over) who plan to vote in the 2024 presidential election. Data were weighted where necessary by age, gender, race/ethnicity, region, education, marital status, household size, household income, employment, and propensity to be online, to bring them in line with their actual proportions in the population. Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in our surveys. The sampling precision of Harris online polls is measured by using a Bayesian credible interval. For this study, the sample data is accurate to within +/- 2.8 percentage points using a 95% confidence level.  This credible interval will be wider among subsets of the surveyed population of interest. All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to other multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including, but not limited to coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments.

Harris Poll Phase 2: The “Bitcoin Election”?

Harris Poll conducted a survey on behalf of Grayscale on voters in the 2024 US Election. The latest longitudinal survey data from Phase 2 (captured between April 30th and May 2, 2024) reinforced the findings from the first phase and underscored that American voters continue to have many of the same priorities and attitudes since Phase 1 was fielded in November 27-29, 2023. However, there have been some noteworthy shifts in interest and perception around owning crypto and how voters are thinking of crypto in the political landscape — both increasingly important topics leading up to the 2024 US Election.

Ahead of the June 2024 US Presidential debate between Biden and Trump[1], voters are expressing uncertainty and the feeling that the stakes are substantial: Wars rage around the world, political discourse continues to be deeply polarized, and inflation is persistent in the US economy, among other things. The two likely Presidential candidates present drastically different visions for the country—and nearly half of registered voters say they would replace them if given the choice[2]. Amid this uncertainty, crypto assets are increasingly relevant to voters, as uncovered in the latest survey conducted by Harris Poll on behalf of Grayscale. Key takeaways include: 

• We believe Bitcoin’s relevance is increasing due to macro dynamics and its own maturity, and nearly half of voters (47%) now expect some of their investment portfolio to include crypto (up from 40% just late last year).
• As in Phase 1 of polling this year, respondents ranked inflation as the top issue in the election (28%), again underscoring the potential value of assets like Bitcoin with a transparent and hard-capped supply.
• Trump is embracing crypto on the campaign trail, and now recent crypto bills, FIT21 and SAB 121, have received bipartisan congressional support. Harris Poll data supports the notion that crypto is a bipartisan topic, with similar ownership rates among Republicans (18%) and Democrats (19%).
• The speculation and headlines have begun: Could November be “the Bitcoin Election”?

Growing Spotlight

Grayscale believes the spotlight on Bitcoin is growing as a result of macro developments and the maturation of Bitcoin as an asset. Over the past six months, since Phase 1 of this survey, voters have been paying more attention to Bitcoin because of geopolitical tensions, inflation, and risks to the US dollar (41% vs. 34% in November 2023). Notably, inflation is by far the top issue in the election according to voters (28%), underscoring the potential value of assets like Bitcoin with a transparent and hard-capped supply.

Importantly, the Grayscale team added a few new questions to the survey for consideration, and the Harris Poll found that Bitcoin-related events, including the US spot Bitcoin ETF approval in January 2024 and the Halving in April 2024, have made voters more interested in investing in Bitcoin and other crypto assets (18% and 20%, respectively)[3]. The Bitcoin ETF approval, in particular, made 9% of retiree voters more interested in investing in Bitcoin or crypto assets.

Exhibit 1: Voters increasingly focusing on Bitcoin

2024 to date has been a banner year for Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s price hit an all-time high on March 13, 2024[4]; in addition, Bitcoin’s price has been higher than it has ever been in previous election years for every day thus far in 2024[5]. The speculation and headlines have begun: Could November be “the Bitcoin Election”?

Exhibit 2: Bitcoin price is higher than during previous elections

This growing spotlight on crypto is not limited to just Bitcoin. Instead, it extends to a broader view of crypto assets, both in terms of general interest and a willingness to invest. Nearly a third of voters (32%) say that they are more open to learning about crypto investing or actually investing in crypto since the beginning of the year. Compared to November 2023, voters are also more likely to see crypto as a good long-term investment opportunity (23% vs. 19%) and increasingly expect some of their investment portfolio to include crypto (47% vs. 40%).

Exhibit 3: Voters increasingly expect their portfolio to include crypto

Crypto is a Bipartisan Political Issue

Although Trump is embracing crypto more on the campaign trail, data shows that crypto is a bipartisan issue, with similar ownership rates among Republicans (18%) and Democrats (19%).

Voters are split on which party is more favorable to the industry, as an equal percentage of voters (30% each) think that both the Democratic and Republican parties have the most favorable position on crypto policies. These findings demonstrate that support for crypto isn't overwhelmingly biased toward one party and suggest a balanced interest across the political spectrum. This aligns with recent bipartisan support across Congress for a resolution of SAB 121 that enables financial institutions to serve as custodians for digital assets, which may enhance accessibility to crypto investors[6].

Still, Republican voters tend to view issues around inflation and the economy as the most pressing issue facing America (54%, vs. 33% for Dems). While ownership levels are similar across parties, issues related to Bitcoin and crypto (inflation and economics) seem to be valued relatively more by Republicans, while data shows Democrats tend to care more relative to Republicans about issues like gun violence, climate change, and income inequality, as shown below in Exhibit 4. This may explain why Trump has recently leaned into crypto on the campaign trail.

Exhibit 4: Single most pressing problem by party

Conclusion

America is facing a fork in the road in more ways than one. Both candidates have different macro policies regarding government deficits and debt, inflation and Federal Reserve independence, and the US role in the world; each of these stances have direct implications on the US Dollar and Bitcoin.

With voters increasingly interested in crypto, the next administration's approach to this emerging digital asset will be important. This is particularly key for the youth vote, as 62% of Gen Z and Millennial voters believe crypto and blockchain technology are the future of finance. Regardless, as we approach November, it seems clear that crypto will increasingly be considered by policymakers and candidates across all offices that are preparing to run for office in the 2024 election.

Methodology

This survey was conducted online within the United States between April 30th and May 2nd, 2024 among 1,768 adults (aged 18 and over) who plan to vote in the 2024 presidential election by The Harris Poll on behalf of Grayscale via its Harris On Demand omnibus product. Data were weighted where necessary by age, gender, race/ethnicity, region, education, marital status, household size, household income, employment, and propensity to be online, to bring them in line with their actual proportions in the population – and was compared to “Phase 1” data that was conducted by these same parameters at the end of November 2023. Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in our surveys. The sampling precision of Harris online polls is measured by using a Bayesian credible interval. For this study, the sample data is accurate to within +/- 2.5 percentage points using a 95% confidence level. This credible interval will be wider among subsets of the surveyed population of interest.

^[1]  Washington Post

^[2]  Pew Research

^[3]  The spot ETF approval made respondents more interested in investing in Bitcoin and other crypto assets at a rate of 18% while the Bitcoin Halving made voters more interested in investing in Bitcoin at a rate of 20%.

^[4]  Coin Metrics

^[5]  Coinmarketcap

^[6]  Financialservices.gov 

Important Information:

This information should not be relied upon as research, investment advice, or a recommendation regarding any products, strategies, or any investment in particular. This material is strictly for illustrative, educational, or informational purposes and is subject to change. This content does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. There is not enough information contained in this content to make an investment decision and any information contained herein should not be used as a basis for this purpose.
This content does not constitute a recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of investors.

This past month, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and crypto more generally were all mentioned in an American Presidential primary debate for the first time ever. The notion that Bitcoin and the crypto asset class are more politically relevant than ever is corroborated by a recent national survey called 2024 Election: The Role of Crypto conducted on Grayscale’s behalf by The Harris Poll. Key takeaways include:  

• Voter concerns around inflation underscore the significance of Bitcoin in an election year.
• 46% of voters say that they are waiting for additional policies before investing in crypto.
• Half of young voters, who own crypto at higher rates than equities, are considering candidate positions on crypto before casting their votes.

Concerns around financial stability and inflation lead to interest in crypto

Today, crypto is relevant to Americans, as voter concerns around financial stability and inflation dominate. This is reflected in voter values: respondents chose “financial stability and being able to pay my bills” as the second most important value, ahead of other options like family, patriotism, community engagement, and finding purpose.

According to respondents, the single most pressing problem in America today is inflation by a wide margin, as depicted in the graphic below. This finding is directly relevant to crypto, and in particular Bitcoin, which has traditionally been correlated with monetary debasement*.

* Macheel, Tanaya. “Bitcoin is a ‘critical hedge’ against currency debasement and return of inflation, Jefferies says.” CNBC, 5 Oct. 2023.

In the past, inflation and other economic concerns have generated interest in investing in assets like Bitcoin. This could be because Bitcoin’s hard-capped supply allows it to function as a store of value asset akin to a digital version of gold. Interestingly, the more familiar respondents were with crypto, the more likely they were to be interested in Bitcoin due to inflation or other macro events. This suggests two things: one, that those familiar with Bitcoin see it as a macro asset and, two, that there may be additional education needed to help a broader audience better understand nascent technologies, like Bitcoin, for there to be greater mainstream adoption.    

Crypto is held by voters across diverse backgrounds

Nearly 7 in 10 respondents report owning some type of investment asset, and nearly 1 in 5 (19%) say that they own crypto, particularly men (23%), Black / Hispanic voters (26%; 32%), and younger voters (31% of Gen Z). These same demographics are also among the most likely to report that inflation has made them more interested in crypto (25% for men; 36% and 39% for Blacks, Hispanics; 40% for Gen Z versus 6% of Boomers).

While the post-FTX landscape has not brought any growth in the percentage of Americans who own crypto, these demographic trends and other findings provide a note of optimism: 40% of investors agree that their future portfolio will include crypto.

Young voters see crypto differently

More Gen Z and Millennials own crypto (31%; 35%) than equities (17%; 24%), and a majority of Gen Z and Millennial voters agree that "Crypto and blockchain technology are the future of finance" (54%; 58%) and a substantive majority (68% for ages 18-34) agreed that they would be “much” or “somewhat” more likely to invest in crypto if there were clearer policies and/or regulations.

Looking ahead to 2024

This past year, we’ve seen Presidential candidates express diverse viewpoints on crypto-related topics within and across political parties. In the future, the Grayscale team believes that Bitcoin may face tailwinds, including the 2024 Bitcoin halving, a potential spot Bitcoin ETF approval in the United States, and potential rate cuts from the Fed.

We’ll be tracking how these voter data points change with additional polling waves in the months to come, so stay tuned and please subscribe to keep apprised of updates.

Methodology

This survey was conducted online within the United States between November 27-29, 2023 among 1,759 adults (aged 18 and over) who plan to vote in the 2024 presidential election by The Harris Poll on behalf of Grayscale via its Harris On Demand omnibus product. Data were weighted where necessary by age, gender, race/ethnicity, region, education, marital status, household size, household income, employment, and propensity to be online, to bring them in line with their actual proportions in the population. Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in our surveys. The sampling precision of Harris online polls is measured by using a Bayesian credible interval. For this study, the sample data is accurate to within +/- 2.7 percentage points using a 95% confidence level. This credible interval will be wider among subsets of the surveyed population of interest.