The CLARITY Act cleared one important hurdle on May 14 as the Senate Banking Committee voted to advance it to the full Senate. The vote was 15–9, with two Democrats1 joining the Republican majority. The widely anticipated CLARITY Act provides a comprehensive rulebook for digital asset markets in the US, from token classifications to registration requirements for intermediaries, and more. The legislation follows last year’s GENIUS Act, which created a new US regulatory framework for stablecoins.
So what’s next?
While Polymarket and Kalshi contracts put the odds of passage this year at ~70% (Exhibit 1), there are still a few hurdles to clear before CLARITY can become law.
The bill will need to be merged with related legislation developed by the Senate Agriculture Committee (which oversees the CFTC) and reconciled with the House version of CLARITY that passed last July. The bill needs at least 60 votes to be approved in the full Senate. Republicans currently control 53 seats, meaning at least 7 Democrats would need to be on board. We believe that’s possible: the GENIUS Act cleared the Senate with 66 votes including 18 Democrats.
Key Takeaway: The CLARITY Act has cleared a key hurdle in the Senate Banking Committee on a bipartisan vote. Odds of passage this year are high, in our view, but the bill will require bipartisan support to clear the full Senate and become law.
Exhibit 1: Polymarket and Kalshi give CLARITY Act ~70% odds for this year
Senators Gallego (AZ) and Alsobrooks (MD).
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