September 10, 2026
The CLARITY Act, bipartisan legislation that would establish a comprehensive rulebook for crypto markets, faces a key Senate test on September 15: a cloture vote on whether to begin floor debate. The vote requires 60 senators to pass. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, so support from Democrats is needed for advancing the bill.
Prediction markets imply low probability of enactment in 2026, reflecting policy disagreements and a compressed legislative calendar. A failed cloture vote would narrow the path to passage this year, although lawmakers could revisit the bill during the lame-duck session or in a future Congress.
That said, CLARITY is no longer the only source of regulatory direction. The US framework is becoming clearer across stablecoins, token issuance, tokenized securities, and perpetual futures even without the CLARITY Act (Exhibit 1).
The GENIUS Act has already established a federal framework for payment stablecoins. The SECโs proposed Regulation Crypto Assets would create clearer pathways for token fundraising, while a potential innovation exemption could enable certain securities-market activities to move onchain. Proposed transfer-agent rules would further support tokenization by allowing the blockchain to serve as an issuerโs official ownership record. The CFTC has also opened regulated US pathways for perpetual futures through Kalshi and Coinbase, potentially creating a route for products linked to platforms such as Hyperliquid.
CLARITY remains important because only Congress can establish a comprehensive and durable division of SEC and CFTC authority. But failure in 2026 would not stop regulatory progress already underway.
Key Takeaway: CLARITY would provide the most comprehensive framework for US crypto markets, but its passage is not determinativeโcrypto policy is already advancing and providing better clarity on several other fronts.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Crypto Regulation Has Advancedโand Continues to AdvanceโBeyond the CLARITY Act
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