February 12, 2026
If prediction markets including Kalshi and Polymarket hadnโt yet entered the mainstream as of last week, itโs quite clear that they did so during the 2026 Super Bowl. On Kalshi alone, nearly $500 million was wagered on the simple question of who would win the game, an increase of more than 20-fold from last year. Prediction market skeptics thought these platforms would be in vogue around major US elections but would see limited traction otherwise. In reality, both Kalshi and Polymarket have experienced sustained growth in trading volume and have expanded to a wide range of markets including foreign policy, financial markets, popular culture, and sports.
We expect growth in adoption of prediction markets to drive new demand for stablecoins and potentially other blockchain-based technologies. Consider, for example, the fact that Polymarket has partnered with Circle to make native USDC the default collateral on the platform.ยน Polymarket has also said it will launch its own token.ยฒ
Key Takeaway: We consider prediction markets one of three areas in crypto showing the most innovation today, along with privacy and perpetual futures. They are โthe three Ps.โ These market segments have shown outsized price performance, experienced rising volume, and offer some of the most compelling use cases for blockchain-based financial services.
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