October 28, 2026
The US midterm elections are next week, and prediction markets suggest the Democrats may take control of both the House and Senate (where Republicans currently hold majorities). The digital assets industry has benefited from improved regulatory clarity in recent years, and a change in control of Congress is unlikely to materially affect the outlook. Here is why, in our view:
First, crypto is bipartisan. Data from Pew Research and The Harris Poll show that roughly the same number of Republicans and Democrats hold or use crypto.1 The GENIUS Act passed Congress with bipartisan support, and earlier legislation during the Biden Administration2 also received votes from Democrats. Perhaps most importantly, federal government debt will likely continue to grow unchecked regardless of the makeup of Congress, driving investors to alternative stores of value including cryptocurrencies.
Second, crypto is global. We estimate that roughly 15-20% of global crypto activity occurs in the US—the remaining 80-85% is overseas (Exhibit 1). Regardless of the outcome of the US midterms, users around the world will continue to seek out alternatives to fiat currencies as well as more effective payment systems, and foreign regulators will continue to put in place rules to support digital assets innovation in their jurisdictions.
Third, crypto is institutional. Public blockchain technology is now more deeply embedded into the mainstream financial system, facilitated by institutional adoption. Leading payments providers are building with stablecoins (e.g., Visa, Mastercard, Fiserv, and Stripe), major asset managers have tokenized their funds (e.g., Franklin Templeton, BlackRock, and JPMorgan), and crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) are now held by many institutional portfolios.3 The private sector has already embraced digital assets.
Key Takeaway: Elections can affect crypto on the margin, just like other asset classes. But the digital assets industry is bipartisan, global, and increasingly institutional, so we believe it will continue to move forward regardless of the outcome of the US midterms.
Exhibit 1: We estimate that roughly 15-20% of global crypto activity occurs in the US
