April 28, 2026
If you ask theย ultra-optimists, artificial intelligence (AI) technology will transform theย economy on a scaleย comparable toย the industrial revolution.ย And if that viewpointย turns out to be correct,ย the resulting productivity boom could mitigate many of the macro risks facing investors.ย Butย history suggestsย we may haveย reasonย for some caution.
The chart below shows the history of US real per capita GDP (i.e., total output/income per person adjusted for inflation). The line starts to bend up in the middle of the 19th centuryโa phase we now call the industrial revolution. Since that time, living standards for successive generations have steadily improved. This is the miracle of modern society.
But the other remarkable fact about the history of productivity is that the pace of progress thereafter has been roughly linear. Per capita GDP has increased on average by 2% per annum for more than 150 years, with remarkably little variation (the Great Depression and World War II are the exceptions). A lot of major technological advancements have come along during that time, including electrification, the internal combustion engine, computers, and the internet. These achievements have prolonged the steady advance of economic productivity but have not resulted in an accelerating rate of growth.
AI could be different, but would you bet your portfolio on it?ย Ifย the productivity gains from AI are โonlyโ as good as the computer and internet, investors will need to grapple with the fact thatย equity multiples are already quite high, andย that governments may need toย inflate their way outย of excessive debt.ย This would argue for portfolio diversification, especially intoย scarceย assets likeย physical gold and Bitcoin.
Key Takeaway:ย Ifย productivity gains from AI are โonlyโ as good as computers and the internet,ย investors willย stillย need to contend withย majorย macro imbalances andย couldย consider assets that provide diversification and scarcity.
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