We argued in our recent annual outlook that quantum risk would be a โred herringโ in 2026โa topic that gets a lot of attention but that, in our view, will not meaningfully move prices.
For anyone interested in the physics and mathematics of advanced technology, there may be no topic that is quite as compelling as the potential threat to modern cryptography from quantum computers. As you may remember from high school physics, quantum mechanics tells us that particles do not exist in a definite point in space, but rather in a probabilistic superposition of states. Quantum computers hope to apply this breakthrough in theoretical physicsโwhich is now about 100 years oldโto a new type of hardware.
At the same, modern cryptography is based on the idea that the solutions to some mathematical problems are computationally difficult to solve. A computer could theoretically โbreakโ a cryptographic system, but it could take thousands of years.
A sufficiently advanced quantum computer may be able to solve these mathematical problems much faster, undermining the cryptographic systems used throughout all aspects of digital commerce, including public blockchains. Quantum computers are a hardware upgrade, and they will require a commensurate software upgrade across the entire internet.
For Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, the key points are:
Key Takeaway: Like public blockchains, quantum computing is an exciting field of advanced technology. Innovations in this area will likely require an update to modern cryptographic systems. Bitcoin and other crypto communities are already preparing and will rise to this challenge when the time comes.
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